Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling: An Interdisciplinary Study of Flux Adjustments in Coupled Atmosphere

This paper is concerned with the use of flux adjustments in coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (A/O GCMS) when run in climate projection studies. However, its perspective is not primarily scientific, but more an interpretative survey of the variety of responses to this practice of flux adjustment amongst scientists. This is largely based on the responses to a survey of 19 climate modelers we conducted in January through August 1995, in which we invited answers to several questions and to a discussion document. We interpret the various responses in terms of the following factors: the implicit assumptions which scientists hold of theenvironmental policy process for climate change, especially how it deals with uncertainty and limitations in the science in the context of politicized debates over the likely occurrence or otherwise of human-related global warming; the range of different scientific styles in climate research, and the corresponding commitments to particular forms of analysis and evaluation; and organizational, institutional and policy influences upon research agendas. The formative role of the assumptions and commitments which we identify, encourages critical questioning of conventional notions of scientific knowledge for policy, in that policy-framing cultural commitments and beliefs, deeper than the usually-addressed "policy interests," are seen to shape scientific practices and styles.